Search results for "Trend Analysis"
showing 10 items of 43 documents
Improving stock index forecasts by using a new weighted fuzzy-trend time series method
2017
Define a new technical indicator for measuring the trend of the fuzzy time series.Introduce a new weighted fuzzy-trend time series method to forecast stock indices.Compare ex-post performances of weighted FTS methods using stock market indices.Assess statistical significance of ex-post forecast accuracy for weighted FTS methods. We propose using new weighted operators in fuzzy time series to forecast the future performance of stock market indices. Based on the chronological sequence of weights associated with the original fuzzy logical relationships, we define both chronological-order and trend-order weights, and incorporate our proposals for the ex-post forecast into the classical modeling…
Trends in net survival from 15 cancers in six European Latin countries: the SUDCAN population-based study material
2016
The aim of the SUDCAN collaborative study was to compare the net survival from 15 cancers diagnosed in 2000-2004 in six European Latin countries and provide trends in net survival and dynamics of excess mortality rates up to 5 years after diagnosis from 1992 to 2004 in France, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland, and from 2000 to 2004 in Belgium and Portugal. This paper presents a detailed description of the data analyzed and quality indicators. Incident cases from Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland were retrieved from 56 general or specialized population-based cancer registries that participated in the EUROCARE-5 database. Fifteen cancer sites were analyzed. The data were c…
Incidence trends of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma in Italy from 1990 to 2015
2020
The incidence of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma has increased for decades in most Western countries - a trend virtually restricted to women aged50 or 60 years. In southern Europe, conversely, the trends have been insufficiently studied. This article reports a study from Italy.Thirty-eight local cancer registries, currently covering 15,274,070 women, equivalent to 49.2% of the Italian national female population, participated. Invasive cancers registered between 1990 and 2015 with an International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd revision, topography code C51 and morphology codes compatible with vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (n = 6294) were eligible. Incidence trends were analyse…
Trend analysis and regional tumor incidence in Germany for testicular cancer between 2003 and 2014
2019
BACKGROUND Testicular germ cell tumor (TGCT) is one the most common solid tumors in men between the age of 15 and 35 with an overall incidence rate of 1-1.5 %. Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated different incidence patterns in western civilized countries with overall rising incidence trends. OBJECTIVE To analyze differences in regional tumor incidence rates for TGCT and perform a trend analysis for TGCT between 2003 and 2014 in Germany. MATERIAL AND METHODS TGCT cases in Germany which were diagnosed between 2003 and 2014 were provided by the Robert-Koch-Institute, Berlin. For statistical analysis, cluster and spatial scan tests according to Kulldorff were used for cases with seminoma a…
Long-term changes in drought indices in eastern and central Europe
2021
This study analyses long-term changes in drought indices (Standardised Precipitation Index—SPI, Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index—SPEI) at 1 and 3?months scales at 182 stations in 11 central and eastern European countries during 1949–2018. For comparative purposes, the necessary atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) to obtain SPEI was calculated using two methods, Hargreaves-Samani (SPEIH) and Penman-Monteith (SPEIP). The results show some relevant changes and tendencies in the drought indices. Statistically significant increase in SPI and SPEI during the cold season (November–March), reflecting precipitation increase, was found in the northern part of the study region, in …
Trends in phenological parameters and relationship between land surface phenology and climate data in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran
2017
Vegetation activity may be changed in response to climate variability by affecting seasonality and phenological events. Monitoring of land surface phenological changes play a key role in understanding feedback of ecosystem dynamics. This study focuses on the analysis of trends in land surface phenology derived parameters using normalized difference vegetation index time series based on Global Inventory Monitoring and Mapping Studies data in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran covering the period 1981–2012. First, we applied interpolation for data reconstruction in order to remove outliers and cloud contamination in time series. Phenological parameters were retrieved by using the midpoint approach…
Trend Analysis of Global MODIS-Terra Vegetation Indices and Land Surface Temperature Between 2000 and 2011
2013
Previous works have shown that the combination of vegetation indices with land surface temperature (LST) improves the analysis of vegetation changes. Here, global MODIS-Terra monthly data from 2000 to 2011 were downloaded and organized into LST, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) time series. These time series were then corrected from cloud and atmospheric residual contamination through the IDR (iterative Interpolation for Data Reconstruction) method. Then, statistics were retrieved from both corrected time series, and the YLCD (Yearly Land Cover Dynamics) approach has been applied to data sources (NDVI-LST and EVI-LST) to analyze changes in th…
Recent temporal and spatial temperature changes in Egypt
2005
In order to detect and to estimate trends of temperature change in Egypt, trend analyses applying the least-squares method and the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test for trends were carried out at six stations for the period 1941–2000 (60 years), and at nine stations for the period 1971–2000 (30 years). According to the trend computations for the period 1941–2000, variable temperature trends over time and space have been observed. Decreasing trends of the mean annual temperature were observed in northern Egypt and (weakly) increasing trends in southern Egypt. Seasonally, positive trends prevailed in summer compared with negative trends in winter. For the recent period, 1971–2000, positive tre…
Convective precipitation over a Mediterranean area: From identification to trend analysis starting from high-resolution rain gauges data
2022
Heavy rainfall events are likely to become more frequent and severe in the next future, under the effects of a changing climate. In this context, the scientific literature is characterized by a relevant number of studies trying to identify the convective component of precipitation, since this kind of phenomena, due to their short duration and high intensity, may lead to an increased risk of flash floods or debris flows and, consequently, human life losses and economic damages. In this study, a separation between the convective and stratiform precipitation, starting from the subhourly precipitation time series recorded over Sicily (Italy), is provided on a monthly scale. Results show that th…
Spatial and temporal temperature trends on the Yunnan Plateau (Southwest China) during 1961-2004
2010
Monthly mean (TEM), maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) surface air temperatures at 119 meteorological stations on the Yunnan Plateau (YP, Southwest China) were analysed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns during the period 1961–2004. Linear trend analyses revealed that annual temperature over the YP increased at a rate of 0.3 °C/decade during the period 1961–2004, while warming trend of 0.33 °C/decade and 0.26 °C/decade was observed for winter and summer temperatures, respectively. Warming trends of nighttime minimum temperature are more pronounced than those of daytime maximum temperature, especially during winter season. Consequently, a decreasing trend of diurnal temperatur…